Product-Market Fit Scorecard
Product-Market Fit (PMF) is the most important milestone for any startup — the point where your product satisfies a strong market demand. This scorecard combines Sean Ellis's famous 'very disappointed' survey (would 40%+ of users be very disappointed without your product?) with retention metrics and qualitative signals to give you a holistic PMF assessment. PMF isn't binary — it's a spectrum, and this scorecard helps you measure where you are.
When to use this framework
- →You're pre-PMF and need to track progress toward it
- →You think you have PMF but want to validate with data
- →Investors ask 'Do you have product-market fit?' and you need a rigorous answer
- →You're deciding whether to invest in growth (premature scaling without PMF is the #1 startup killer)
- →You want to compare PMF across different customer segments
Before you start
You need at least 30-40 active users to run the Sean Ellis survey with statistical significance. For retention data, you need at least 2-3 months of cohort data.
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Superhuman (2018)
1. Sean Ellis Survey Results
Ask active users: 'How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?' The magic threshold is 40% selecting 'Very disappointed.'
How many users responded to the survey? Aim for 30+ for meaningful results.
Percentage who answered 'Very disappointed.' The PMF threshold is 40%+.
Percentage who answered 'Somewhat disappointed.'
Percentage who answered 'Not disappointed.' These users don't see enough value.
2. Retention Metrics
Percentage of new users who return in Week 1.
Percentage of new users who return in Month 1.
Percentage of new users still active after 3 months. If the retention curve flattens, that's a strong PMF signal.
Does your retention curve flatten (PMF!) or keep declining toward zero (no PMF)?
3. Qualitative PMF Signals
Rate each signal from 1 (not at all) to 10 (absolutely yes).
Are users telling others about your product without being asked? Are you seeing organic signups?
Are users using the product as often as you'd expect (daily for a daily-use product, weekly for weekly)?
Are users willing to pay (or pay more) for the product? Do they complain about price or gladly pay?
When the product has downtime or bugs, do users complain loudly? Strong complaints = they depend on you = PMF.
4. PMF Assessment
Average of the four qualitative signals.
Based on all signals above, where are you on the PMF spectrum? What's the evidence?
If pre-PMF: what must you change to get there? If post-PMF: what's your growth strategy?
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